The state of the State

The consequences of governmental interventionism (or as Faustino Ballve calls it: “Economic Dictatorship” and the interference in markets).  It doesn’t look pretty:

States faced with three brutal options in 2010: inflation, high taxation or default
– Public announcement GEAB N°39 (November 16, 2009) –

16/11/2009

As anticipated by LEAP/E2020 last February, in the absence of major reappraisal of the international monetary order, the world is now entering the phase of geopolitical dislocation of the global systemic crisis. In 2010, as protectionism and the economic and social depression will gain momentum, a large number of States will be compelled to choose between three brutal options: inflation, high taxation or defaulting on their debt. A growing number of countries (USA, United Kingdom, Euroland [1], Japan, China [2],…) have used all their budgetary and monetary cartridges in the 2008/2009 financial crisis and are now left with no other alternative. Nevertheless, out of ideological reflex or in an attempt to avoid by any means having to make such painful choices, they will try to launch new stimulus plans (under different names) even though it is now clear that the huge public effort made in the past months to boost the economy is having no impact on the private sector. Indeed the consumer-as-we-knew-him in the past decades is dead, with no hope of resurrection [3]. Knowing that nearly 30 percent of Western countries’ economies are now made of « economic zombies » (financial institutions, companies and even states, whose signs of life are only due to central banks’ liquidity injections), it is possible to confirm the inevitability of the “impossible recovery” [4]. The international and social (within each country) « everyman for himself » rule is beginning to prevail, as well as a general impoverishment of the ex-Western world, United States in the first place. In fact the West is being scuttled by leaders unable to face the reality of a post-crisis world, who keep resorting to methods from yesterday’s world despite their proved inefficiency.

In this 39th issue of the GEAB, our team has therefore chosen to develop anticipations on general developments in 2010, a year when key states will see their choices be restricted to three brutal options, inflation, high taxation or default, which they will struggle to escape from in vain. Knowing that one of the reasons why stimulus plans are doomed to fail is that the consumer-as-we-knew-him in the past thirty years is dead, we analyze this phenomenon in this issue of the GEAB, as well as fallout for companies, and for the marketing and advertizing businesses. In the field of geopolitics, we present a number of LEAP/E2020 anticipations regarding Turkey by 2015 with regards to both NATO and the EU. Of course, we also present our usual monthly recommendations, as well as the results of the last GlobalEurometre survey.

More…

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